Buzzing Into the Future: Bumble’s Path Ahead
By: Helen Liu
The Ivey Business Review is a student publication conceived, designed and managed by Honors Business Administration students at the Ivey Business School.
Inside the Beehive
In 2014, Bumble Inc. established itself as a disruptive force in the online dating space, breaking into the sector with its flagship app, Bumble. The app introduced a fresh concept for women to "make the first move," setting itself apart in the dating landscape. Bumble’s new concept challenged traditional dating norms and redefined digital connections in an era with increasing emphasis on women’s empowerment. Despite this, within the past four years Bumble has faced leadership changes, failed product expansions, and poor rebrands in light of shifting consumer preferences. These factors have resulted in the company’s stock price cratering 92 percent since its IPO in 2021.
Bumble is not alone in these financial troubles, with other giants like the Match Group (parent company of Tinder, Match.com, OkCupid, Hinge, Plenty of Fish, etc.) also floundering. The online dating industry has collectively suffered decreasing usership since its 2021 peak. Initially, online dating companies attempted to combat the decline by capitalizing on the loneliness epidemic through launching or acquiring friendship-centred applications such as Fruitz or Bumble for Friends, hoping the online-friendship market would prove to be as lucrative as the dating market. Despite reporting hundreds of thousands of active users on Bumble for Friends, Bumble still lost 8 percent of its monthly active users that year. The friendship hypothesis was rejected, and Bumble announced plans to discontinue Fruitz operations just a year after its initial acquisition.
In 2024, Bumble Ex-CEO Lidiane Jones attempted to shift Bumble into the mainstream, hoping that appealing to younger consumers would increase user count, by moving away from their women-centred messaging and allowing men to message first. This proved ineffective in slowing Bumble’s decline, with the app reporting an 8.3 million revenue decline in Q4 of 2024, down 3.8 percent from Q3. This slump can be attributed to a total average revenue per paying user (ARPPU) decline of $2.25 ($21.17 compared to $23.42), signalling low-value perception from users of the service, prompting the return of founder Whitney Wolfe Herd as the CEO in an attempt to turn the business back around.
Logging Off
Dating app usage peaked during the COVID-19 pandemic. Since then, young adults (defined as individuals between ages 18 and 35) have gradually become more disillusioned with online dating. This demographic tends to be the largest user base, but with 79 percent of Gen Z passing on dating apps, executives are scrambling to find new ways to attract this group. Gen-Z has increasingly focused on seeking long-term relationships on dating apps, but the growing sense of futility from swiping has driven them away. This can be attributed to three factors: (1) the difficulty of finding connections with shared interests, (2) the difficulty of building genuine connections online, and (3) the increasing gamification of online dating.
The majority of young singles have indicated they want to find partners with shared interests, yet 45 percent say that this very goal is the biggest challenge with online dating. A lack of mutual interests, coupled with the quantity-focused swiping mechanic and aggressive monetization of dating apps, creates emotional dissonance and user frustration. In combination, these factors have driven the 42 percent increase in demand for in-person events. This enables more meaningful conversion and often involves shared hobbies, culminating in feelings of a genuine connection. Addressing these consumer trends is the utmost priority if Bumble wants to maintain its place as a major market player in the online dating space.
Rival Soars, Bumble Stalls
Amongst the struggling market, one standout competitor has managed to attract more users than others. Hinge has managed to grow its paying users and ARPPU. Hinge’s growth can be attributed to its unique value proposition that aligns with the growing demand for serious relationships, but it has also yet to address the reason why young adults have grown disenchanted with dating apps.
New market entrants focus on novel methods in finding a partner, promising genuine connection through real-life meetings. Thursday Dating, an app that focuses on hosting IRL events every week, and First Round is On Me, which introduced a non-swipe-based way to pair and pre-plan dates for users, are instances of successful new launchers. Thursday successfully built a base of 2 million users and launched over 100 relationships before pivoting away from their dating division, while First Round built a platform of 125k+ users and an 800 percent year-over-year subscription growth. Both Thursday and First Round have proved that curating a differentiated matching experience and providing more real-life experiences is key to combating user fatigue.
Beyond the Bio
Bumble Hives
Bumble currently uses a hidden algorithm to determine which profiles are displayed to users, choosing to swipe left or right for a match. This model is the industry standard for major dating apps whilst making minor alterations but largely sticking to this model without introducing significant changes. Bumble tried to refresh the experience under Jones but largely failed in the eyes of consumers; “I was really disappointed with the Bumble update” one user writes to National Public Radio “it seemed like they were promising something that had never been done before on dating apps, which got me excited because dating apps have gotten so stale recently." More drastic product innovation is needed to re-engage consumers and avoid further loss of market share to Hinge.
Rather than relying on a hidden algorithm, Bumble should bring this to the forefront and introduce interest-based “Bumble Hives,” allowing users to filter profiles accordingly; turning the current black-box process into a more personalized user-driven journey. With the rollout of new interest filters becoming one of the most used features, along with the growing consumer sentiment towards interest-based connections, further leaning in this direction could drive user engagement and growth on Bumble. Major dating apps haven’t changed their format since their launch 15 years ago, and users are growing increasingly negative about their experience. To improve user satisfaction, users need to feel more connected, humanized, and as if they have control over their matching experience.
Additionally, Gen-Z users ranked innovative features as the highest in attitudes toward dating services. “Algorithmic torture may be happening everywhere, but the consequences of feeling like we are technologically restricted from finding the right partner are much heavier than, say, being duped into buying the wrong direct-to-consumer mattress,” writes New York Times contributor Magdalene J. Taylor.
At launch, “Hives” should be created based on the top 25 most equipped interest badges. As more users adopt the feature, user suggestions can be implemented to encourage the representation of more niche hobbies. When enough users suggest the same interest, a new “Hive” is formed, automatically notifying those who contributed, reinforcing the sense that users are shaping their own dating experience. Many of Bumble’s current features, such as the geographical sliders and intention badges, can further be integrated with the new model.
Integration with Niche Community Applications
To strengthen its hobby-centred repositioning, Bumble should allow users to link their profiles with niche community applications aligned with specific interests. For example, a user in the “Running” Hive could connect their Strava account, while a film enthusiast in the “Movies” Hive might link their Letterboxd profile. When users join a Hive, they would be prompted to connect a relevant external profile. These connections would then be displayed as part of their dating profile, highlighting achievements, preferences or activity levels, to foster more meaningful connections rooted in shared passions.
These API integrations would not only enhance Bumble’s matching experience but also offer mutual benefit to the partnered platforms. They would gain access to Bumble’s user base of 50 million, providing them with valuable exposure and data, potentially boosting their own user acquisition and engagement.
Swiping to Speaking
Bumble should revisit its inaugural slogan “Making the First Move” and embrace the focus on “first move” by implementing and scheduling offline meetups. The addition of offline meetings will enable Bumble to target young adults by building an interest-based matching process and encouraging offline engagement. The new meetups are geared towards those seeking a relationship based on shared interests, enabling Bumble to capture the hearts (and wallets) of users once again.
Hive to Offline
In 2024, event hosting platform Eventbrite saw a 1.5 million spike in searches for dating and singles events, pushing them to launch a dedicated page for dating events and a summer event series to capitalize on this new demand. Running clubs have also become popular as a place to meet romantic interests, with #running jumping to 3.9M posts on TikTok and users writing “run clubs are the new Hinge”. Popular health & fitness app Strava reports a 59 percent increase in run club participation globally in 2024, driven by a strong desire to build social connections. It’s not just a desire to connect: 58 percent of users say they are successfully making new friends and 1-in-5 Gen-Z users reported going on a date with someone they met while exercising.
The market indicates a growing interest in real-life meetups among those searching for a partner. These connections can be facilitated by Bumble through the addition of “date invites” to profile matching. When users swipe yes on a profile, they will be prompted to build a real-life date or meet-up invitation including location, time, activity, and comments. The user receiving the invite will then have the option to accept, decline, or directly message to re-negotiate. Coupled with the interest-based “Hives” and app integration, this should enable users to skip the awkward texting phase and move straight to speaking in person, building genuine connections faster. This also brings them further away from the tried-and-tired traditional volume-based swipe model. These invitations also offer a new revenue stream by way of promoted venues, activities or experiences by charging businesses for premium placement in the invite builder, similar to Google Maps. Additionally, paid users could gain access to expanded invite customization options or early access to events held, offering a clear upgrade path without disrupting user experience.
Beyond the Honeymoon
To reclaim its place as a leader in the online dating space, Bumble should rethink what it means “to make the first move.” By anchoring the user experience in shared interests through Bumble Hives, integrating niche community platforms and offering real-life date invitations, the company can rebuild trust with disillusioned Gen Z users. These changes would transform Bumble from a swipe-based app into a more personalized, purpose-driven ecosystem for connection. Moreover, the strategy unlocks monetization opportunities without sacrificing user experience. As dating app fatigue sets in and younger users look offline for authenticity, Bumble has an opportunity to redefine what connection looks like in the digital age. If Bumble wants to avoid being left behind in an increasingly disillusioned market, it should make the first move, again.
